PVC market outlook forecast
In terms of futures: the PVC01 contract has lightened 32,000 lots in the intraday trading to Masukura 10,000 lots in late trading, and funds flowed into 6,272 lots. From the point of view of Wenhua Commodities, today's iron ore led the gains. The main iron ore contract rose by nearly 8%. The Wenhua index rose sharply in the morning but fell in late trading, showing pressure. The intraday rebound of the PVC01 contract tends to be driven by other products, but there are still empty orders after the rebound to a high level to suppress the future price upward. Based on the current macro perspective and PVC fundamentals, we expect the PVC01 contract range to fluctuate mainly. But at present, there is an upward trend in the lower track of the Bollinger Bands. Therefore, in terms of operation, we still recommend interval rolling, Bollinger to the indicator upper rail 9165, middle rail 8629. In terms of spot: the two markets are gradually returning to the supply and demand level and macro fundamentals. First of all, the coal sector has not seen a large direction in the near future, and the macro-level news is also lacking. The increase in crude oil instability in the external market may affect polyolefins and then affect the ethylene spot market. In terms of PVC cost,
Calcium Carbide support is sufficient. Recently, the receiving price of calcium carbide still has sporadic increases. The operating load of PVC production enterprises has increased, and the demand for calcium carbide has increased. Therefore, there is still an increase of about 100 yuan/ton in calcium carbide in the near future. In terms of exports, some PVC companies have recently received export orders. After the opening of the Indian market in October, coupled with the recent drop in domestic spot prices, China's supply advantage has increased, so exports have turned for the better. On the demand side, we still maintain the previous view. The operating load of northern product companies has declined, and after the mid-term Winter Olympics and the cold weather in Northeast China, overall demand remains weak. Analyze the current spot market: there is still pressure above the price rebound, and the upward trend is obviously restricted by demand. On the downside, there will be calcium carbide support and some bullish sentiments. Therefore, in the short term, we believe that the spot market will enter a period of turbulence and consolidation.
We have done chemical products for over 30years. Our main products include PVC Resin, CPE, TIO2,PE WAX, Paraffin Wax, Stabilizer ETC.
