PVC market outlook forecast
In terms of futures: PVC09 contract in the plasticizing sector has shown sufficient strength compared to polyolefins. Although the futures price still has a back-test performance, the late rally of the futures price still shows a certain degree of resilience. In the early stage, we have been emphasizing that the current market trend mixed with shifting positions and changing months is not stable, given that there are probabilities both above and below the 6800 mark. For the current point, the futures price has a certain over-opening phenomenon after the futures price runs through the middle rail, but in the absence of the movement of OTC funds, the futures price trend is relatively anxious and narrow. At the technical level, the opening of the three-track Bollinger Band has narrowed. From the previous trend, the narrowed futures price trend will be the turning point of the new round of market. We still maintain the previous point of view. As time goes on, the 09 contract gradually ends. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to buy the 01 contract on dips. The time node is recommended to be one week before the 20th, but pay more attention to the increase and decrease of positions on the disk and the futures price pattern.
Spot: The current supply and demand level is still the influencing factor in the early stage, which is relatively stable at present, and the price of Calcium Carbide still has sporadic and small rises, but neither the external disk nor the internal disk factor can be clear. The price of Formosa Plastics has been announced to be stable, but there will still be some suppression after benchmarking against domestic highs. In terms of crude oil in the outer disk, oil prices have been under pressure for several weeks as the market is worried that the economic slowdown may lead to a decline in demand, and oil prices have been under pressure, but geopolitical factors also have a certain impact on oil prices. From the perspective of commodity sentiment, the overall performance of domestic commodities in the middle and early stages of the second and third quarters continued to be sluggish. For the continuously suppressed demand, there is still a certain expectation in the face of the upcoming gold nine silver ten, and for futures, most commodities Different bottoming phenomena have appeared under the suppression, so continuing the suppression may pay a greater price. Therefore, from the perspective of capital gains and risks, the 01 contract turns upward or more reasonable. However, the anxious market situation presented by shifting positions and changing months has also caused the spot market to fall into a trend of short-term volatility and consolidation, and this trend may continue to be maintained in the short-term. Continue to observe the departure of the 09 contract and the follow-up trend of demand.
We have done chemical products for over 30years. Our main products include PVC Resin, CPE, TIO2,PE WAX, Paraffin Wax, Stabilizer ETC.
